Science and Technology Festival Opened

DPRK Premier Choe Yong Rim (2nd R) tours the Science and Technology Festival on Friday, 27 April in Pyongyang (Photo: KCNA)

On Friday (27 April) DPRK state media reported that the a Science and Technology Festival opened at the Three Revolutions Exhibition Hall.  DPRK Premier Choe Yong Rim and KWP Secretary Choe Tae Bok, among other central leadership, attended the opening ceremony.  The festival was announced   KCNA reports:

The festival is divided into 13 panels of light industry, agriculture, foodstuff, railway transport, energy, construction and building materials, basic science, state of the art and others.

Presented to the festival are achievements of more than 200 units in the process of putting the production processes on a modern and scientific basis by pushing back the frontiers of latest science and technology together with many research findings of scientists, technicians and working people highly appreciated at local festivals.

Attending the ceremony were Choe Yong Rim, premier of the Cabinet, Choe Thae Bok, secretary of the C.C., the Workers’ Party of Korea, Ri Ja Bang, chairman of the State Science and Technology Commission, officials concerned, scientists, technicians and working people.

Meanwhile, 372 km (231 miles) northeast of the Three Revolutions Exhibition Hall, excavation and construction work proceeds.  The ongoing activity suggests that preparations are under way for the DPRK to conduct a third nuclear detonation at its test site in P’unggye-ri, Kilchu County, North Hamgyo’ng Province.  Kyodo reported on 25 April that Russia raised its alert level on the expectation that the DPRK’s nuclear test would be within the week.  38 North reports:

The latest imagery, taken April 18, 2012, documents continuing preparations for an upcoming nuclear test and shows a train of mining carts on top of the spoil pile and random unidentified structures or objects on or near the piles (see figure 3). Based on an examination of previous satellite photos, their position and number appear to vary on a day-to-day basis, indicating the continued movement of vehicles, structures and other objects on or near the spoil piles at the mouth of the test tunnel. According to one press report on April 21, the North had completed the removal of the large spoil pile near the test site, probably to seal the tunnel for the explosion. However, this imagery shows the size of the pile largely unchanged. Whether the test device has been emplaced in the chamber and stemming with other material has been completed, remains unclear.

Images of a tunnel entrance (top) and tunnel leading to the nuclear detonation site. These images appeared in episode 4 of the 2009 Korea Film Studios' feature The Country I Saw, which included a depiction of the 25 May 2009 nuclear test

The DPRK’s third nuclear test may not be as imminent as some in the neighborhood foresee.  Korea Herald reports:

Pollack was in Seoul last week to attend the 2012 Asan Plenum, a three-day international forum on global challenges that kicked off last Wednesday. The annual forum was organized by local think tank Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

Pyongyang may face a tougher response from its crucial patron China should it take another destabilizing action following the recent rocket launch, he pointed out. In an unusual move, Beijing agreed at the U.N. Security Council to condemn Pyongyang on April 16, three days after the botched launch.

“They may also be weighing the implications. This time, China would really impose some severe costs on them. We have the Chinese vice foreign minister in the forum, giving some very forceful remarks,” he said.

“They will test it at some point, but not now yet,” Jonathan Pollack of the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank, told The Korea Herald.

“The reason might not be technical, but political that another nuclear test would probably be damaging to North Korea from the point of view of seeing a future South Korean president more aligned with their interests.”

“He did not say a nuclear test, but you could see what he was talking about to make clear that China’s disapproval of any such third test would be very strong, potentially very harsh.”

Pollack paid particular attention to the fact that Pyongyang has not been explicit yet about its preparation for a nuclear test while it gave some explanation before their past nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.

“There has been no explicit threat to test the nuclear weapon. The other thing I want to emphasize that in both 2006 and 2009, they developed almost what we would call an immediate campaign over a period of time,” he said.

“I don’t know, it was perhaps, weeks or months, but it was trying to build the case for why they would then proceed to a nuclear test.”

Although it would not be easy for Beijing to change its core policy toward its impoverished ally considering that it favors stability on the peninsula, China could make some adjustments in it to protect its national interests, he argued.

“The Chinese are not, in my own view, likely to discard North Korea, but under some circumstances, it is possible that they might really try to put limits on the relationship if North Korea is affecting their Chinese vital interests,” he said.

“China’s larger worries concern North Korea undertaking actions to which the ROK (Republic of Korea) would respond this time, and then, this triggers an environment that draws in both the U.S. and China on the peninsula.”

Unha-3 Rocket in Place?

Technicians and other personnel of the Korea Committee for Space Technology and the Korean People’s Army [KPA] continue to finalize preparations for the launch of the U’nha-3 carrier rocket and Kwangmyo’ngso’ng-3 [KMS-3] satellite.  38 North reports:

Commercial satellite photographs taken on April 4 reveal the gantry’s work platform is now covered and closed around the mobile launch stand, indicating work is being conducted inside, but also making it impossible to determine whether the Unha-3 or any part of it is erected on the pad. Moreover, the platform is enclosed by canvas to protect it from weather but also to further ensure that activity inside is not visible. (Previous satellite imagery dating back to March 28 showed the platform open and no stages present.)

There are some indicators to suggest, however, that at least the first stage may be stacked in the gantry and the launch date is growing closer. First, the fueling activity observed for the past week seems to have been completed. Most of the empty fuel and oxidizer tanks appear to have been removed from the buildings that supply the first stage, indicating an end to the delivery of propellants.

Second, the North Koreans appear to have erected a barricade or security checkpoint for vehicles entering from the west, the only road to the pad from other main facilities at the range. This barrier or checkpoint, not present in March 28 satellite photos, indicates heightened security at the pad—something present.

Third, the launch pad itself has been cleaned up and objects seen near the gantry previously have been removed. The scraping of the area adjacent to the south side of the pad down to dirt has also been completed and the brush cut up to the fuel buildings to reduce the chance of a fire reaching them. It also appears that a layer of dirt has been spread into the concrete flame trench probably to reduce erosion by the rockets exhaust gases.

KBS World in Seoul reports that the launch is expected to occur on or around 14 April (Saturday):

A source related to North Korean affairs has said Pyongyang is likely to launch its long-range missile on April 14th and not April 12th, as was expected earlier.

The source said North Korea has invited reporters from foreign media to the launch event, telling them to enter Pyongyang on April 12th.

The source said considering the state of North Korean roadways, it will take at least a day to move from Pyongyang to the launch pad in Dongchang-ri in Northern Pyongan Province, and the invited reporters will likely observe the launch on the morning of the 14th.

Other North Korean experts also said it was highly likely the North would fire its rocket that day to commemorate the birth of North Korean founder Kim Il-Sung.

Japan’s Nippon Television Network said on Friday that North Korea has attached the first part of the Gwangmyongsong-3 rocket onto the launch pad.

South Korean military sources have said North Korea will probably start fueling its rocket on Sunday.

Foster Klug writes for the Associated Press:

The North Korean launch is meant as a showcase of national power and technology during celebrations of one of the country’s most important days — the centennial of the April 15 birth of national founder Kim Il Sung. North Korea says the rocket will carry a satellite into orbit to study crops and natural resources.

Washington and others call the launch a cover to test missile systems that could target parts of the United States. While North Korea has conducted two nuclear tests, analysts don’t believe it has yet mastered the technology needed to shrink a nuclear weapon and mount it onto a missile.

Launch preparation can also be seen in separate GeoEye satellite images from Saturday reviewed by Allison Puccioni, image analyst at IHS Jane’s Defense Weekly. The images show vehicles on the launch pad, nearby fuel and oxidizer containers and a crane above the launch tower that’s been placed “directly over the mobile launch platform, the position necessary to erect the rocket.”

Cloudy skies from Sunday through Tuesday obscured the launch site, but the U.S.-Korea Institute’s analysis says that if Pyongyang is following a timeline similar to 2006 and 2009 launches, workers should have put the rocket’s first stage on the launch stand Sunday or Monday, with the second and third stages coming during the next two days.

Image: Asahi Shimbun

Nanae Kurashige, Takashi Oshima and Akihiko Kaise reported for Asahi Japan Watch :

South Korea says Japan has overreacted, and the United States seems to be more concerned with what the missile can do, rather than what might happen if it malfunctions.

On April 6, Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka visited the Air Defense Command headquarters, located in the compound of U.S. Yokota Air Base in Fussa, western Tokyo. The ADC is under the jurisdiction of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces.

There, he met with ADC Commander Harukazu Saito and U.S. Forces Japan Commander Burton Field, and expressed his hope that Japan and the United States would work closely to deal with the problem.

The ADC headquarters was transferred to the Yokota base in late March to facilitate coordination with the United States.

The office will analyze intelligence gathered by U.S. forces and Japan’s SDF, and command operations to intercept the North Korean missile if there is any chance of it landing on Japanese territory or its waters.

“I was reassured by Commander Field that U.S. forces will share information with Japan,” Tanaka told reporters after his visit.

On April 3, Tanaka spoke by telephone with U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, during which they both agreed that Japan and the United States would work together to deal with the threat.

However, a Japanese Defense Ministry official said Washington’s sense of crisis is more subdued than in 2009 when Pyongyang launched a long-range ballistic missile in the direction of the U.S. mainland.

This time, however, the missile will take a southern trajectory.

In both cases, North Korea asserted it was launching a satellite.

“The country that is feeling the biggest threat is Japan,” said an executive of the Japanese Defense Ministry.

Japan is deploying Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) surface-to-air guided missiles in three locations in the Tokyo metropolitan area and four locations in Okinawa Prefecture.

But there appears to be little chance of missile debris, or the missile itself, falling on the Tokyo metropolitan area, a Defense Ministry official said.

The United States has yet to disclose full details of its own measures to deal with the missile launch.

On April 5, U.S. Defense Department spokesman George Little told reporters that the United States is monitoring North Korean moves and is ready to track the missile if it is launched.

The United States is deploying Aegis destroyers equipped with missile defense capabilities. Reconnaissance aircraft will also take to the air.

CNN reported that sea-based X-band radar equipment, which is used to detect incoming missiles, left a U.S. Navy base in Hawaii in late March bound for the Japan-Korea region.

Washington is particularly interested in the range and capability of the North Korean missile.

In a congressional hearing held in late March, U.S. Forces Korea Commander James Thurman was asked if North Korea had the ability in the near future to fire a ballistic missile that could reach the continental United States.

Thurman said North Korea, at its current pace of development, would soon be able to build a missile that poses a serious threat to the United States.

Meanwhile, DPRK state media reports that 30-odd news reporters and journalists have begun arriving to observe the U’nha-3/KMS-3 launch.  Xinhua reports:

Some 30 foreign reporters from around the world are in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) capital to cover the country’s satellite launch, the official news agency KCNA reported Saturday.

According to the report, a total of 21 foreign media, including major world wire services and television broadcasters such as the AP, CNN and NBC of the United States, Channel One (the First Channel TV) of Russia, Kyodo News Agency and NHK of Japan, AFP of France, and Reuters and BBC of Britain, have sent reporters to Pyongyang.

Also on Saturday, Pyongyang bureaus of Xinhua and other foreign media received an invitation to attend authorities-organized activities relating to the launch on Sunday, but no further details were revealed.

The DPRK announced on March 16 it would launch the Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite between April 12 and 16 to mark the 100th birthday of late leader Kim Il-Sung.

The “earth observation” satellite, to be carried by a long-range Unha-3 rocket, will be launched south of Cholsan County, North Phyongan Province, the KCNA reported.

On March 17, the Korean Committee for Space Technology (KCST) extended invitations for foreign experts and journalists to visit the “Sohae” Satellite Launching Station, the General Satellite Control and Command Center and other places and observe the launch.

Footsteps and Insteps

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il inspects a fish farm in a northern region, according to this photo released by the country's official Korean Central News Agency, which did not say when the activity was carried out. (Yonhap)

Has Kim Cho’ng-il changed his shoes? Around 12 May [Thursday] Kim Cho’ng-il was reported to have visited Kujang Fish Farm.  Yonhap reports on the photograph released of his visit:

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has recently begun sporting his trademark high-heeled shoes again, a development that could raise an intriguing question about whether his health has improved.

Kim had sported high-heeled shoes that increased his height to what is believed to be 162 centimeters, or about 5’3″, before he reportedly suffered a stroke in 2008. Since then, he has switched to sneakers and flat dress shoes.

But a photo released by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency on Saturday showed Kim wearing a pair of shoes with 2- to 3-cm-high heels during an inspection tour.

These heels are bit lower than those on the shoes he had previously donned during official events, including his summit with then South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun in 2007 when Kim wore shoes with 6- to 7-cm-high heels.

The reappearance of Kim’s signature shoes may signal that his health has improved, though details were not immediately available.

Kim Cho'ng-il's dress shoes in a May 2011 photo released by KCNA

The style of shoe was a famous for wearing highlighted in this 2007 KCNA photo of a guidance tour (Photo: KCNA)

The leather sneaker-style shoe Kim Cho'ng-il has worn from late 2008 through 2011, including this photo released in early May

KCNA reported about KCI’s visit to the North P’yo’ngan fish farm:

After being briefed on the farm before a huge map showing its panoramic view, he went round various places of the fish farm including a hatching room to learn in detail about fish breeding there.

Noting that the Kujang Fish Farm is the best place for fish breeding as it abounds in water resources and quality of water is good, he stressed that the fish farm ensuring profitability and equipped with cutting-edge facilities is the one desired by the WPK and capable of bringing the people substantial benefits.

He set forth tasks to serve as guidelines for further developing the nation’s fish farming.

Fish breeding is a very economic production field as it ensures high profitability, while spending less money, and the shortest cut to providing people with fresh fish in all seasons, he said.

Kim Cho’ng-il was reported to have made several visits by KCNA between 6 May and 9 May.  On 7 May Kim Cho’ng-il was reported to have toured the Namhu’ng Youth Chemical Complex which is located near Anju, South P’yo’ngan.  According to Yonhap News Agency the ostensible purpose of his visit was to promote fertilizer production, which he has done on previous visits in 2011 including a January appearance at the Hu’ngnam Fertilizer Complex in South Hamgyo’ng.

DPRK Premier Choe Yong-rim tours Hyesan Youth Mine, Yanggang Province (Photo: KCNA)

DPRK Premier Choe Yong-rim visited the complex, also to promote fertilizer production on 29 April.  Choe also presided over a national meeting there, held 1 May (International Labor Day; May Day). Interestingly, on 10 May KCNA reported on Choe visiting Hyesan Youth Mine in Yanggang Province, a follow-up trip to KCI’s guidance tour in April.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il (second from R) looks at products during his visit to Namheung Youth Petrochemical Factory in Anju, South Pyongan Province. The (North) Korean Central News Agency released the photo on May 7, but did not elaborate on when the visit was made. (Yonhap)

KCNA reports:

It is a miracle that the workers of Namhung successfully completed the construction of the second system of gasification process in a short span of time by their own efforts and with their own technology, he noted, highly praising them for building a giant structure by displaying popular heroism and patriotic devotion.

The completion of the first and second systems of gasification process in Namhung is a shining victory of President Kim Il Sung’s idea of building Juche-oriented chemical industry and a precious fruition of the tremendous mental power of the Korean workers intensely loyal to the party and the leader, he said, and continued: “Our party is strong and our socialist country is winning one victory after another thanks to the huge unit of the revolutionary and militant workers who performed shining feats in the gasification project under the slogan ‘Korea does what it is determined to do!’” Then he went round the stable, the essential foodstuff shop and Chongchun Health Complex to learn in detail about the supply service at the complex and cultural and emotional life of the workers there.

Everything is going well at the complex thanks to the good supply service, he said, praising the party and administrative officials of the complex for retaining a firm hold on the supply service and making tenacious efforts to improve it with a correct view on the workers, the master of production.

Watching a volleyball match and swimming in the newly built modern Chongchun Health Complex, he was pleased that the workers were having an ample cultural rest.

He watched various consumer goods produced by the complex before stressing the need to produce many more quality goods very necessary for improving the standard of people’s living.

The most important task before the complex is to focus efforts on keeping the production of fertilizers going at a high rate and send greater quantity of fertilizers to the socialist cooperative fields, he said.

Another important task before the complex is to wage a dynamic drive to increase the varieties of chemical products needed for people’s living, he added.

Deputy Director of the CC KWP Light Industry Department and former Cabinet Premier, Pak Pong Ju (2nd L) attends Kim Cho'ng-il's May visit to a Pyongyang textile mill (Photo: KCNA)

Prior to traveling to Anju, Kim Cho’ng-il was reported as having visited several factories in and around Pyongyang.  Seen in attendance at KCI’s side was deputy director of the CC KWP Light Industries Department and one-time DPRK Premier, Pak Pong-ju.  KCNA reports about one leg of KCI’s promotion of light industries and consumer goods:

He dropped in at the general control room and was briefed on the Tetron spun rayon fabrics production process. Going round several places of the Tetron spun rayon fabrics shop, he acquainted himself in detail with the production there and technological features and efficiency of the new equipment.

He looked at clothing and shirting materials made from Tetron spun rayon fabrics, cotton chequer and curtain cloth one by one and underscored the need to increase the production of clothing materials and varieties of fabrics liked by people.

He enjoyed a performance given by members of the itinerant art squad of the mill on the spot and highly appreciated their splendid performance.

He advanced important tasks facing the mill.

Kim Cho’ng-il was also reported on 10 May to have attended a concert given by the art group of the Kim Hyo’ng-chik [Kim Hyong Jik] University of Education.  One of KCI’s former wives served as dean and president of KHCU for a number of years.

Its repertoire included chorus “Glory to Our Great Party”, poem and song “Before Board Bearing the Autograph of the Fatherly Leader”, sketch “A Full Mark”, male chorus and story-telling “We Are Called by the Future of Thriving Nation” and poems and choruses “Green Pine on Nam Hill” and “March of Korean Youth”.

He expressed great satisfaction over the splendid performance given by students of the university with works of great cognitional and educational value as they truly reflect their life. He highly appreciated their successful performance and extended thanks to them in the name of the C.C., the WPK.

Kim Cho’ng-u’n (Kim Jong Un) was neither seen nor reported to have attended Kim Cho’ng-il’s recent visits.

Blinded Me with Science

Last week, the North Korean press buried the replacement of its Minister of Finance under PRC State Councilor Dai Bingguo’s meeting with Kim Jong-il.  This week with news of the North-South reunions at Mount Kumgang, Yonhap News Agency reports that the DPRK replaced its President of the National Academy of Science.  The National Academy of Science is subordinate to the DPRK Cabinet, and should not be confused with the Second National Academy of Science, which is subordinate to the Second Economic Committee.

Here today, gone tomorrow? Former NAS President Pyon Yong-rip.

The outgoing National Academy of Science President Pyon Yong-rip was an alternate member of the KWP Central Committee and was a deputy (delegate) to the 12th Supreme People’s Assembly, representing the 50th Electoral District.  Mr. Pyon had worked for Party and State education organizations for almost 40 years, including serving as Minister of Education in the early 1990′s.  He was also a chair of the DPRK-Belarus Friendship Association and had served as a Vice Chair of the DPRK-Cuba Solidarity Committee.

Pyon Yong-rip’s replacement as President of the National Academy of Science is Dr. Jang Chol.  Dr.  Jang wrote an editorial in Rodong Sinmun announcing his appointment to the NAS Presidency.  As Yonhap writes, “Little is known about Jang.”  Dr. Jang gave a speech on behalf of North Korean scientists at an October 2006 rally in Kim Il-sung Square that celebrated the 9 October 2006 nuclear test.  At that occasion Dr. Jang was joined by KWP Secretary Choe Thae-bok and current National Defense Commission member Kim Jong-gak.   This may indicate that Dr. Jang has institutional connections to the DPRK nuclear program, or ties to the Second Economic Committee.  Dr. Jang is a deputy (delegate) to the 12th Supreme People’s Assembly, representing the 87th Electoral District.