Missile Accessories Shipped to Sohae

The estimated shipment route of missile parts from the Sanum-dong Research and Development Complex in Pyongyang to the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in North P’yo’ngan Province (Photo: Google image; route drawn by M. Madden )

Asahi Shimbun reported on 21 November (Wednesday) that satellites caught sight of a shipment of missile parts traveling from Pyongyang factories  to the country’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Tongch’ang-dong, North P’yo’ngan Province.  Asahi reported that missile parts were delivered from Sanum-dong, Ryongso’ng District in northwest Pyongyang to the Sohae facility in Ch’o'lsan County.  According to Asahi “Satellite photos of the cargo showed similarities to the long-range ballistic missile that North Korea launched in April.”  Yonhap News Agency quoted an unnamed intelligence official who said, “It is certain that those are missile parts.”  Hankyoreh quoted a ROK military official who said that the satellite imagery showed “peculiar activity” and said that the shipment was “not for ordinary missile base activity like maintenance or repairs.”

A specialized railway station 4.7 km (2.9 miles) west of the Sanum-dong Research and Development Complex in Pyongyang (Photo: Google image)

An overview of the Sanum-dong Research and Development Complex in northwest Pyongyang (Photo: Google image)

Overview of the Sanum-dong Research and Development Complex and a specialized railway station in northwest Pyongyang (Photo: Google image)

The shipment of missile parts follows ongoing construction activity on the Sohae Satellite Launch Station’s service structures and testing of rocket engines between April and September 2012.  According to a widely-reported image analysis by Nick Hansen for 38 North , “Imagery from September 28 shows that, while the lower three sets of platforms remain closed, the top set is retracted back against the gantry. A payload support arm, first photographed by the media on April 8, 2012 is visible. Since a lower arm was used for the Unha-3 vehicle, this arm is intended to support a much taller rocket planned for future launches from Sohae. The gantry crane was aligned over the open platforms, indicating that work was being done” and that “Pyongyang appears to have conducted at least one and possibly more large rocket engine tests at Sohae between April 13 and September 17 this year. . .Imagery from September 28 indicates that another rocket engine test has recently been conducted.”

It is not entirely certain when, or if, the DPRK plans to conduct a satellite launch or long-range missile test.  The DPRK leadership is well aware that its activities are monitored through satellites and heavily scrutinized in Seoul, Tokyo and elsewhere.  As Asahi reported “because Pyongyang is aware of the orbit of U.S. spy satellites, it might have moved the cargo to use as a bargaining chip.”  A ROK Minister of National Defense, quoted in Hankyoreh, said ”‘We’re going to have to wait and see if they actually go ahead with the launch,’ the official said, adding that it would a tall order technically because it typically takes over a year to find and fix the sort of flaw that would have caused the launch failure in April.”  The Sohae shipment might be a matter of keeping external observers guessing, as well as keeping the DPRK missile program’s employees and middle managers busy.  Given how quickly the U’nha-3 crashed after its 13 April 2012 launch, the core leadership in Pyongyang may also be sating its constituency in the Korean Workers’ Party Second Economy Commission.

Pak Ui Chun Departs For ASEAN Regional Forum

DPRK Foreign Minister Pak Ui Chun (L) talks with Chinese Ambassador Liu Hongcai at Pyongyang Airport on 10 July 2012 prior to his departure to Phnom Penh where Pak will attend ASEAN’s Regional Forum (Photo: KCNA screen grab)

DPRK state media reported that Foreign Minister Pak Ui Chun (Pak U’i-ch’un) departed Pyongyang on 10 July (Tuesday) for the annual AESEAN Regional Forum [ARF] being held in Phnom Penh.  At the airport Pak was seen off by DPRK Vice Foreign Minister Pak Kil Yon, Chinese Ambassador to the DPRK Liu Hongcai and other Pyongyang-based foreign diplomats. When Pak attended last year’s ARF in Bali, he met with his South Korean counterpart Kim Sung-hwan and briefly met with former Japanese Foreign Minister Taekaki Matsumoto.  He also brought along Vice Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho, who was appointed DPRK representative to the Six Party Talks.  These interactions set the table for US-DPRK interactions that resulted in the Leap Day Deal.  This year’s ASEAN host nation, Cambodia, has expressed hope that this year’s ARF might facilitate similar interactions.  However, based on DPRK state media coverage of Pak’s departure and previous DPRK statements and media activity about South Korea’s political leadership, that does not appear likely.

Meanwhile at ARF, as something Spratly this way comes, South Korea plans to ask the forum to adopt the United Nations Security Council statement condemning the 13 April launch of the U’nha-3.  Yonhap reports:

The forum, hosted by the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has served as an important venue for discussions on North Korea. It will mark the first time that high-level diplomats from the two Koreas could have face-to-face meetings on the sidelines since the December death of North Korea’s long-time ruler, Kim Jong-il.

South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan will join the forum and his North Korean counterpart, Pak Ui-chun, is also due to arrive in Phnom Penh on Wednesday, Seoul officials said.

Officials have said South Korea has no plans to hold a bilateral meeting with North Korea during the ARF, but left the door open for an inter-Korean contact organized by an “unofficial channel.”

Diplomatic efforts to resume the six-party talks on ending North Korea’s nuclear ambition have been frozen since April, when North Korea defiantly launched a long-range rocket that failed moments after lift-off. The U.N. Security Council strongly condemned the launch as a disguised test of a long-range ballistic missile and warned the North of further sanctions if it conducts another missile launch or nuclear test.

“We want the ARF to adopt a chairman’s statement supporting the U.N. Security Council statement over North Korea’s missile launch,” said a senior official at Seoul’s foreign ministry.

He declined to elaborate on the language South Korea wants to include in the document.

The key to such a statement is support from Cambodia, which will chair the session, the official said on the condition of anonymity.

The ARF statement is also expected to call for a resumption of the six-party talks that involve the two Koreas, the U.S., China, Russia and Japan, the official said. Among those attending the ARF are top diplomats from the six nations.

Besides North Korea, territorial disputes and diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions in the South China Sea are expected to dominate the ARF, ministry officials said.

Asked about the possible inter-Korean meeting in Phnom Penh, the official replied, “We do not have plans to meet with North Korea for now, and as far as we know, there is no meeting planned between the U.S. and North Korea.

“But, if the North Korean side proposes meeting us, we will have no reason to reject the proposal,” he said.

A trilateral meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Japanese Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba is set for Thursday on the sidelines of the ARF, ministry officials said.

Following North Korea’s botched rocket launch, South Korean officials have said it will be difficult for the six-party talks to resume this year, citing the upcoming presidential elections in both Seoul and Washington.

Concerns persist that North Korea may soon conduct a third nuclear test to make up for its failed launch. The North’s previous two rocket launches in 2006 and 2009 were followed by nuclear tests.

KPA Brass’ Promotion and Demotion

South Korean media reported on 14 June (Thursday) that Lt. Gen. Kim Rak Gyom was appointed commanding officer of the Korean People’s Army [KPA] Strategic Rocket Force Command [SRFC] in early 2012.  Lt. Gen. Kim was later elected a member of the Korean Workers’ Party Central Military Commission [CMC] during the 4th Party Conference on 11 April 2012.  The SRFC was first mentioned in DPRK state media report on 2 March 2012 when Kim Jong Un (Kim Cho’ng-u’n) inspected its headquarters near Kangdong County in northeast Pyongyang.  KJU later included the SRFC when addressing other KPA service branches in his public speech prior to the military parade held on 15 April 2012 to commemorate the 100th birth anniversary of his grandfather and DPRK found Kim Il Sung.  The SRFC was created during 2011 when DPRK policymakers consolidated all short-, medium- and intermediate-range missile units into a unified command under the National Defense Commission [NDC].

Kim Jong Un (2nd L) inspects the KPA Strategic Rocket Forces Command, with Lt. Gen. Kim Rak Gyom (2nd R), VMar Ri Yong Ho (R) and Gen. Pak Jae Gyong (L) (Photo: KCNA)

A graphic of the National Defense Commission as of June 2012, reflecting the rumored personnel change at the KPA Strategic Rocket Force Command

A graphic of the Party Central Military Commission (CMC) that includes Col. Gen. Choe Sang Ryo. According to South Korean media and government officials, Col. Gen. Choe may have been removed during the 4th Party Conference in April 2012 and replaced by Kim Rak Gyom

A graphic of the Party Central Military Commission as of June 2012

A view of the KPA Strategic Rocket Forces’ Command (Photo: Google image)

Meanwhile, Daily NK, citing South Korean government sources, reports that Gen. Kim Kyok Sik has been passed over after a round party assessments of senior officials and may have a reduced rank.  Gen. Kim, a former chief of the KPA General Staff and close military advisor to the late Kim Jong Il, served as commander of IV Army Corps from 2009 to 2011.  During his command, the ROK naval corvette Ch’o'nan sank in March 2010 and the KPA fired artillery shells at ROK forces and civilians on Yo’n'pyo’ng Island in November 2010.  In August 2011, he was replaced a deputy defense minister and returned to Pyongyang.  He was rumored to be serving either as a deputy chief of the KPA General Staff, or a deputy defense minister.  Daily NK reports:

 A Ministry of Unification official told Daily NK about the demotion today, saying, “Based on various trend indicators including reports in the North Korean media and Chosun Central TV through which Kim Kyuk Shik’s position emerges, we confirmed his demotion to colonel-general.”

Kim first came to the attention of North Korea watchers in 1994 when he became 2nd Corps commander. In 2007 he was promoted to Chief of Staff, but two years later was moved out of Pyongyang to head the 4th Corps. It was only after he was sent to Hwanghae Province that North Korea really stepped up its provocations in the disputed West Sea, including the sinking of the Cheonan on March 26th, 2010 and the Yeonpyeong Island shelling on November 23rd the same year.

Kim most recently appeared at events to commemorate Kim Jong Il’s birthday on February 16th and at a Party reporting conference on April 25th, the founding day of the Chosun People’s Army.

According to military analyst Cheong Seong Chang of the Sejong Institute, “We know that in North Korea there are internal assessments of public figures. So, rather than Kim Kyuk Shik getting demoted because he made an error or because of a problem with his loyalty, there is a chance that he just got left behind in internal assessments.”

“We know that right now the North Korean Chief of Staff Lee Young Ho and NSA head Kim Won Hong have very good assessments,” Cheong went on, suggesting that Kim Kyuk Shik may simply have fallen behind the curve.

Missiles and Missile Accessories

On 15 April 2012, during a military parade commemorating the 100th anniversary of Kim Il Sung’s birth, six (6) transporter erector launchers [TELs] ferried six new mobile missiles through KIS Square, which have been dubbed the KN-08.  Some observers have claimed that the missiles paraded through Pyongyang were showpieces.  Markus Schiller and Robert Schumucker wrote:

The question is now if these mock-ups were modeled after a real design that is still hiding behind the curtain, or if the whole presentation was staged just for show, to celebrate Kim Il Sung’s 100th birthday and to gain some strategic leverage.

Judging from other insights about the North Korean missile program, the latter seems more likely. Nonetheless, close monitoring of future developments is advised.

Only once a North Korean ICBM lifts off the pad for the first time, as a proof of concept for the design’s functionality, the development work really starts. After that, it will take many years and many, many flights to arrive at a deployable and operational ICBM force, since the development of a modern ICBM is extremely demanding. To put things into perspective: The development of the Soviet/Russian Topol-M ICBM is said to have cost 142.8 billion Rubles (in 1992 prices – at that time, the Ruble exchange rate was around one US Dollar). Looking at the Musudan missile’s “development history” – not a single launch –, and considering North Korea’s poor situation in every dimension, it seems unlikely that this first launch will ever happen.

For now, the ICBM presentation was nothing else than a nice dog and pony show.

Nick Hansen writing on 38 North offers a different analysis:

While some analysts have also concluded that the missile’s warhead—about 2.5 meters long and tapered—is fake, it actually resembles that found on the Nodong-A medium range missile already fielded by the North. Even if it is not an operational weapon, the real warhead will likely be about the same length and diameter. This conclusion is based on the dimensions and shape of the transporter’s erection arms and its front brush guard. The erection arms run parallel with the missile’s sides and are attached to the clamp that holds the missile in place when traveling. The brush guard provides protection to the warhead during off-road operations and outlines its shape.

There are other considerations that point to the displayed missiles as part of a process to develop a new weapon. For example, the serial numbers painted on the side of each missile indicate that the missiles come from two production series. The small differences in those missiles indicate that flaws may have been discovered and improvements made, indicating an ongoing process of development. Also, the KN-08 TEL was real and clearly specifically designed for this missile, representing a significant investment of time, effort, and money. Finally, while analysts who believe the missile was fake have argued that the KN-08, if liquid fueled, would not suitable for a land mobile launcher, they neglect the fact that the North already has an operational liquid fueled missile: the Nodong-B, which is 17 meters long, only a few meters shorter than the KN-08.

In summary, the KN-08 missiles observed in the April 15th parade may, in fact, be part of a developmental process for fielding a new three stage liquid fueled missile with a longer-range than the Musudan. Whether it will eventually be able to achieve the 10,000 km range of an ICBM is to be seen. That will depend, not just on further developments in DPRK missile technology, but also on the weight of the warhead that it will carry and, particular, whether or not the North will be able to reduce that weight through miniaturization of a nuclear payload.

Prior to the parade that concluded with the KN-08 march, Kim Jong Un (Kim Cho’ng-u’n) delivered a speech in which he addressed the Strategic Rocket Force Command, along with the KPA’s three conventional military services and the Korean People’s Internal Security Force.  On 2 March 2012 DPRK state media reported that Kim Jong Un inspected the Strategic Rocket Force Command.  Prior to the SRFC’s creation, administration and command of KPA ballistic missile units resided with the Ballistic Missile Training Guidance Bureau (a.k.a. Artillery Guidance Bureau; Missile Bureau) and operational planning and control from the Operations Bureau, both directly subordinate to the KPA General Staff.

Daily NK reported on 19 April, four days after the parade, that SRFC represents a consolidation of the KPA’s missile units and  supply and training bureaus into a unified command organization directly subordinate to the National Defense Commission [NDC] and the KPA Supreme Command.  Prior to the SRFC’s creation, administration and command of KPA ballistic missile units resided with the Ballistic Missile Training Guidance Bureau (a.k.a. Artillery Guidance Bureau; Missile Bureau) and operational planning and control from the Operations Bureau, both directly subordinate to the KPA General Staff.  According to the article,  ”. . .there used to be a rocket corps included in the unit in charge of the whole artillery force, including self-propelled howitzers and multiple rocket launchers, but it appears now that it was separated.  After Kim Jong Un made the existence of the strategic rocket force known, a new missile of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) class showed up in a military parade. A military source stated, ‘With a diameter of 2 meters and a length of over 18 meters, the firing range of this missile is believed to be longer than that of the medium-range ‘Musudan’ ballistic missile’ (which is approximately 3,000-4,000 km). The emergence of the strategic rocket force is interpreted as North Korea’s will to further devote itself to improving rocket capabilities and developing ICBMs in the future. The United States and international society believe that North Korea’s ICBM technology is still too technically inadequate at atmospheric re-entry and target guidance technology to strike the US mainland.”

Kim Jong Un Attends 2 More Photo Ops

Kim Jong Un waves to managers and employees of the Mansudae Art Studio during a photo op with them, reported by DPRK media on 20 April (Photo: KCNA)

A commemorative photo of Kim Jong Un, other members of the DPRK central leadership and employees of the Mansudae Art Studio (Photo: KCNA)

DPRK state media reported on Friday (20 April) that Kim Jong Un (Kim Cho’ng-u’n) attended two commemorative photo sessions at Ku’msusan Memorial Palace.  His first photo op was with the managers, party officials and personnel of the Mansudae Art Studio.  KJU was accompanied by SPA Presidium President Kim Yong Nam, DPRK Premier Choe Yong Rim, Director of the KPA General Political Bureau Choe Ryong Hae, NDC Vice Chairman Jang Song Taek and KWP Secretary and Director of the Propaganda and Agitation Department [PAD] Kim Ki Nam and PAD Senior Deputy (1st Vice) Director Ri Jae Il and PAD Deputy (Vice) Director Kwon Hyok Byong.   KCNA reports:

Kim Jong Un, first secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea, first chairman of the DPRK National Defence Commission and supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army, had a picture taken with officials, creators and employees of the Mansudae Art Studio.

Before having a photo session with them, Kim Jong Un warmly congratulated them on their big successes in the creative work to portray the leaders including the erection of the statues of President Kim Il Sung and leader Kim Jong Il on Mansu Hill and in the drive to thoroughly implement the WPK’s Juche-oriented literary and art policy.

He expressed expectation and conviction that they would bring about a fresh turn in the work to portray the leaders and create many more masterpieces fully reflecting the Korean people’s thoughts and feelings and the spirit of the times and thus creditably discharge their mission and duty they have assumed before the party and the revolution.

Managers and employees of the Mansudae Art Studio greet Kim Jong Un during a commemorative photo session at Ku'msusan Memorial Palace (Photo: KCNA)

Kim Jong Un (seated, C) poses for a commemorative photograph with participants in the 15 April 2012 military parade held in Pyongyang (Photo: Rodong Sinmun)

Kim Jong Un’s second photo op was with participants of the military parade held in Pyongyang on 15 April, the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung.  Also in attendance were Kim Yong Nam, Choe Yong Rim, Choe Ryong Hae, Jang Song Taek, Kim Ki Nam as well as Chief of the KPA General Staff VMar Ri Yong Ho, Minister of the People’s Armed Forces VMar Kim Jong Gak, NDC Vice Chairman and director of the KWP Civil Defense Department VMar Kim Yong Chun, KWP Secretary of Military Industry Pak To Chun, 1st Vice Minister of the People’s Armed Forces and Director of the KPA General Logistics Department VMar Hyon Chol Hae, Director of the KWP Machine-Building Industry Department Ju Kyu Chang, Director of the KWP Military Affairs Department Col. Gen. O Il Jong, Vice Chief of the KPA General Staff Gen. Choe Pu Il, Deputy (Vice) Director of the KPA General Political Bureau Gen. Pak Jae Gyong, Chief of the KPA Reconnaissance General Bureau Gen. Kim Yong Chol, Military Security Commander Col. Gen. Jo Kyong Chol, KPA Foreign Affairs Department official Col. Gen. Sim Sang Dae, Col. Gen. Son Chol Ju, Col. Gen. Yun Tong Hyon and Col. Gen. Pak Jong Chon.

A commemorative photograph of DPRK central leadership with participants in the military parade held on the anniversary of Kim Il Sung's birth (Photo: Rodong Sinmun)

KCNA reports:

Kim Jong Un, first secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea, first chairman of the National Defence Commission of the DPRK and supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army, had a photo session with the participants in the military parade for celebrating the centenary of the birth of President Kim Il Sung.

After arriving at the square of the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, Kim Jong Un waved back to the enthusiastic cheers of the participants, extending a warm salute to them.

He congratulated the service personnel of the three services and the Strategic Rocket Forces of the KPA and the Korean People’s Internal Security Forces, members of the Worker-Peasant Red Guards and the Young Red Guards and students of revolutionary schools on demonstrating the spirit of Songun Korea and tremendous national power through their parade.

He expressed expectation that the participants in the parade would fulfill their mission as standard bearers and shock brigades in invariably preserving the revolutionary nature of the KPA just like the character of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il and fully demonstrating the fighting method of the powerful revolutionary army of Mt. Paektu holding aloft the red flag of the WPK as its first colors.

This was the first instance that a KCNA news item directly referred to the KPA Strategic Rocket Force Command [SRFC] since Kim Jong Un’s inspection of the SRFC’s complex near Kangdong County during late February 2012.  When Kim Jong Un delivered his speech before last Sunday’s parade, according to KCBS he addressed “heroic officers of the army, the navy, the air force and the strategic rocket unit of the KPA and officers of the Korean People’s Internal Security Forces.”  However, KCNA English reporting on the parade and KJU’s speech omitted any references to the SRFC or “the strategic rocket unit of the KPA.”

Rocket on Launch Pad

Officials of the Korea Committee for Space Technology [KCST] have placed the U’nha-3 carrier rocket on its launch pad at the Sohae Launch Facility in Tongch’ang-ri, Ch’o'lsan County, North P’yo’ngan Province.  U’nha-3 was unveiled to visiting foreign media, along with what was said to be the Kwangmyo’ngso’ng-3 satellite [KMS-3].  Xinhua reports:

The rocket for Pyongyang’s planned satellite launch later this month has been installed on the launch pad, Xinhua correspondents saw at the launch site Sunday.

A official said at the scene that the Unha-3 rocket, which is slated to blast off during the April 12-16 window and send an “earth observation” satellite into space, is yet to be fuelled.

Xinhua was among the foreign media invited to visit the launching station, control and command center and some other places.

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) announced last month its plan to launch the Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite to mark the 100th birthday of late leader Kim Il Sung, which has triggered global concerns.

Daily Yomiuri reports:

The injection of liquid fuel will start after the second- and third-stage units are assembled, the sources said.

Despite strong opposition by Japan, the United States, South Korea and other countries to the plan, the latest development shows North Korea has entered the final stage of preparations for the launch.

The setting up of the first-stage booster was confirmed by analysis of data from a U.S. reconnaissance satellite.

According to the sources, the first-stage booster was assembled vertically on the launchpad, which is about 50 meters high, at the new missile base in Tongchang-ri completed last year.

U.S. and South Korean authorities believe the second- and third-stage units will be set up by early this week, followed by the injection of liquid fuel from an underground facility.

The liquid fuel used by North Korea is said to be highly corrosive, making it difficult to store in a fuel tank for a long time after its injection, according to military experts. For this reason, the fuel will be injected a few days before the launch.

“No delays have been seen thus far, from the transportation of the missile body to the base to its assembly. We believe the launch will be carried out as announced,” a source said.

North Korea announced it will launch the rocket in the period from April 12 to 16.

Starting Wednesday, North Korea is scheduled to hold a series of political events, including a representatives’ meeting of the Workers’ Party of Korea. During this meeting, the North’s new leader, Kim Jong Un, is expected to assume the hermetic country’s highest posts, such as the general secretary of the party.

Another diplomatic source said North Korea will “fire the missile by April 15, [to celebrate the] 100th [anniversary of the] birthday of late President Kim Il Sung…and the completion of the power succession.”

Meanwhile, the launch of the U’nha-3 and Kwangmyo’ngso’ng-3 satellite may not be the only test carried out by the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP) Central Committee’s Machine-Building Industry Department and its subordinate organizations, the Second Economy Commission and Second Natural Sciences Academy.  South Korean officials say that ongoing excavation and construction activities near P’unggye-ri, Kilchu County, North Hamgyo’ng Province suggest the DPRK may conduct a third underground nuclear detonation, likely HEU.  Yonhap reports:

Satellite images show the communist nation digging a new tunnel underground in the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the country’s northeast, where it conducted two previous nuclear tests, first in 2006 and then in 2009.

The construction is believed to be in its final stage, the official said.

“North Korea is making clandestine preparations for a third nuclear test at Punggye-ri in North Hamkyong Province, where it conducted two nuclear tests in the past,” the official said on condition of anonymity.

Commercial satellite imagery showed piles of earth and sand at the entrance of a tunnel in the Punggye-ri site. The soil is believed to have been brought to the site to plug the tunnel, one of final steps before carrying out a nuclear test blast.

A nuclear test following a long-range missile test fits the pattern of North Korean behavior.

In 2006, the provocative regime carried out its first-ever nuclear test, three months after the test-firing of its long-range Taepodong-2 rocket. The second nuclear test in 2009 came just one month after a long-range rocket launch.

The North says it will fire off its Unha-3 long-range rocket between April 12-16 to put what it claims is a satellite into orbit. But regional powers believe the launch is a pretext to disguise a ballistic missile test banned under a U.N. Security Council resolution.

Sources said the North is believed to have put the rocket on a launch pad in the country’s northwest on Friday.

The North’s nuclear and missile programs have long been a regional security concern. The country is believed to have advanced ballistic missile technology, though it is still not clear whether it has mastered the technology to put a nuclear warhead on a missile.

Unha-3 Rocket in Place?

Technicians and other personnel of the Korea Committee for Space Technology and the Korean People’s Army [KPA] continue to finalize preparations for the launch of the U’nha-3 carrier rocket and Kwangmyo’ngso’ng-3 [KMS-3] satellite.  38 North reports:

Commercial satellite photographs taken on April 4 reveal the gantry’s work platform is now covered and closed around the mobile launch stand, indicating work is being conducted inside, but also making it impossible to determine whether the Unha-3 or any part of it is erected on the pad. Moreover, the platform is enclosed by canvas to protect it from weather but also to further ensure that activity inside is not visible. (Previous satellite imagery dating back to March 28 showed the platform open and no stages present.)

There are some indicators to suggest, however, that at least the first stage may be stacked in the gantry and the launch date is growing closer. First, the fueling activity observed for the past week seems to have been completed. Most of the empty fuel and oxidizer tanks appear to have been removed from the buildings that supply the first stage, indicating an end to the delivery of propellants.

Second, the North Koreans appear to have erected a barricade or security checkpoint for vehicles entering from the west, the only road to the pad from other main facilities at the range. This barrier or checkpoint, not present in March 28 satellite photos, indicates heightened security at the pad—something present.

Third, the launch pad itself has been cleaned up and objects seen near the gantry previously have been removed. The scraping of the area adjacent to the south side of the pad down to dirt has also been completed and the brush cut up to the fuel buildings to reduce the chance of a fire reaching them. It also appears that a layer of dirt has been spread into the concrete flame trench probably to reduce erosion by the rockets exhaust gases.

KBS World in Seoul reports that the launch is expected to occur on or around 14 April (Saturday):

A source related to North Korean affairs has said Pyongyang is likely to launch its long-range missile on April 14th and not April 12th, as was expected earlier.

The source said North Korea has invited reporters from foreign media to the launch event, telling them to enter Pyongyang on April 12th.

The source said considering the state of North Korean roadways, it will take at least a day to move from Pyongyang to the launch pad in Dongchang-ri in Northern Pyongan Province, and the invited reporters will likely observe the launch on the morning of the 14th.

Other North Korean experts also said it was highly likely the North would fire its rocket that day to commemorate the birth of North Korean founder Kim Il-Sung.

Japan’s Nippon Television Network said on Friday that North Korea has attached the first part of the Gwangmyongsong-3 rocket onto the launch pad.

South Korean military sources have said North Korea will probably start fueling its rocket on Sunday.

Foster Klug writes for the Associated Press:

The North Korean launch is meant as a showcase of national power and technology during celebrations of one of the country’s most important days — the centennial of the April 15 birth of national founder Kim Il Sung. North Korea says the rocket will carry a satellite into orbit to study crops and natural resources.

Washington and others call the launch a cover to test missile systems that could target parts of the United States. While North Korea has conducted two nuclear tests, analysts don’t believe it has yet mastered the technology needed to shrink a nuclear weapon and mount it onto a missile.

Launch preparation can also be seen in separate GeoEye satellite images from Saturday reviewed by Allison Puccioni, image analyst at IHS Jane’s Defense Weekly. The images show vehicles on the launch pad, nearby fuel and oxidizer containers and a crane above the launch tower that’s been placed “directly over the mobile launch platform, the position necessary to erect the rocket.”

Cloudy skies from Sunday through Tuesday obscured the launch site, but the U.S.-Korea Institute’s analysis says that if Pyongyang is following a timeline similar to 2006 and 2009 launches, workers should have put the rocket’s first stage on the launch stand Sunday or Monday, with the second and third stages coming during the next two days.

Image: Asahi Shimbun

Nanae Kurashige, Takashi Oshima and Akihiko Kaise reported for Asahi Japan Watch :

South Korea says Japan has overreacted, and the United States seems to be more concerned with what the missile can do, rather than what might happen if it malfunctions.

On April 6, Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka visited the Air Defense Command headquarters, located in the compound of U.S. Yokota Air Base in Fussa, western Tokyo. The ADC is under the jurisdiction of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces.

There, he met with ADC Commander Harukazu Saito and U.S. Forces Japan Commander Burton Field, and expressed his hope that Japan and the United States would work closely to deal with the problem.

The ADC headquarters was transferred to the Yokota base in late March to facilitate coordination with the United States.

The office will analyze intelligence gathered by U.S. forces and Japan’s SDF, and command operations to intercept the North Korean missile if there is any chance of it landing on Japanese territory or its waters.

“I was reassured by Commander Field that U.S. forces will share information with Japan,” Tanaka told reporters after his visit.

On April 3, Tanaka spoke by telephone with U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, during which they both agreed that Japan and the United States would work together to deal with the threat.

However, a Japanese Defense Ministry official said Washington’s sense of crisis is more subdued than in 2009 when Pyongyang launched a long-range ballistic missile in the direction of the U.S. mainland.

This time, however, the missile will take a southern trajectory.

In both cases, North Korea asserted it was launching a satellite.

“The country that is feeling the biggest threat is Japan,” said an executive of the Japanese Defense Ministry.

Japan is deploying Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) surface-to-air guided missiles in three locations in the Tokyo metropolitan area and four locations in Okinawa Prefecture.

But there appears to be little chance of missile debris, or the missile itself, falling on the Tokyo metropolitan area, a Defense Ministry official said.

The United States has yet to disclose full details of its own measures to deal with the missile launch.

On April 5, U.S. Defense Department spokesman George Little told reporters that the United States is monitoring North Korean moves and is ready to track the missile if it is launched.

The United States is deploying Aegis destroyers equipped with missile defense capabilities. Reconnaissance aircraft will also take to the air.

CNN reported that sea-based X-band radar equipment, which is used to detect incoming missiles, left a U.S. Navy base in Hawaii in late March bound for the Japan-Korea region.

Washington is particularly interested in the range and capability of the North Korean missile.

In a congressional hearing held in late March, U.S. Forces Korea Commander James Thurman was asked if North Korea had the ability in the near future to fire a ballistic missile that could reach the continental United States.

Thurman said North Korea, at its current pace of development, would soon be able to build a missile that poses a serious threat to the United States.

Meanwhile, DPRK state media reports that 30-odd news reporters and journalists have begun arriving to observe the U’nha-3/KMS-3 launch.  Xinhua reports:

Some 30 foreign reporters from around the world are in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) capital to cover the country’s satellite launch, the official news agency KCNA reported Saturday.

According to the report, a total of 21 foreign media, including major world wire services and television broadcasters such as the AP, CNN and NBC of the United States, Channel One (the First Channel TV) of Russia, Kyodo News Agency and NHK of Japan, AFP of France, and Reuters and BBC of Britain, have sent reporters to Pyongyang.

Also on Saturday, Pyongyang bureaus of Xinhua and other foreign media received an invitation to attend authorities-organized activities relating to the launch on Sunday, but no further details were revealed.

The DPRK announced on March 16 it would launch the Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite between April 12 and 16 to mark the 100th birthday of late leader Kim Il-Sung.

The “earth observation” satellite, to be carried by a long-range Unha-3 rocket, will be launched south of Cholsan County, North Phyongan Province, the KCNA reported.

On March 17, the Korean Committee for Space Technology (KCST) extended invitations for foreign experts and journalists to visit the “Sohae” Satellite Launching Station, the General Satellite Control and Command Center and other places and observe the launch.

CPRK Statement Labels Satellite Interception Attempt “Act of War”

Office buildings of the KWP United Front Department. The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea is subordinate to UFD (Photo: Google image)

The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea (CPRK; formerly known as Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland) released a statement on 5 April (Thursday) saying that an attempt to intercept the U’nha-3/Kwangmyo’ngso’ng will be construed as “an act of war.”  KCNA reports:

A spokesman for the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea issued the following statement on Thursday: The South Korean puppet forces recently bluffed that they would “intercept” the DPRK satellite Kwangmyongsong-3, disclosing their attempt to make a fresh military provocation.

The group of traitors aligned with the U.S. is saying that it would track the orbit of the DPRK’s satellite projectile with the mobilization of war hardware including various monitoring machines, missiles and Aegis destroyer, and intercept the satellite in case its debris fall out.

The U.S. is now busy making the emergency transfer of an ultra-modern maritime radar base “SBX-1″ from Hawaii for the purpose of tracking and monitoring satellite and backing its interception. Meanwhile, Japan is making reckless remarks that it would intercept the DPRK satellite if its propeller body drops on Japan’s archipelago.

The puppet military warmongers worked out the “plan for mounting strike on corresponding targets” while talking about “assault” and “possibility of provocation” from someone. They did not hesitate to let loose a spate of such balderdash as “striking Pyongyang”.

The military warmongers including Kim Kwan Jin, puppet minister of Defence, openly blustered that they would attack Pyongyang if Seoul is attacked, claiming that now it has become possible to independently “punish” in line with the “right to self-defence”. They used to say in the past they could not but restrain themselves in the face of attack by the north due to the belligerence regulations of the Armistice Agreement and the relations with the “UN Command”.

The reckless racket for provocation kicked up by the puppet group of traitors is a dangerous act of causing an all-out war as it is a last-ditch effort of persecution maniacs.

The DPRK’s peaceful satellite Kwangmyongsong-3 is for the development of science and technology, whose legitimacy and transparency will be fully ensured in the whole course of its launch. The world already knows about this.

Several decades have passed since mankind launched the first satellite and thousands of satellites were put into outer space ever since. But there was no one who stoked confrontation recklessly trying to intercept the satellite for peaceful purposes.

A saying goes “only stick is seen by crazy dog”. Those obsessed by the idea of escalating confrontation with the DPRK and hostility towards it seem to regard the DPRK satellite as a nuclear war-head.

To intercept the satellite for peaceful purposes is just an act of war and it is bound to entail tremendous catastrophe.

What matters is whether the provocateurs are concerned about the consequences.

Their call for “strike at Pyongyang” is just hysteria of the puppet war-like forces.

Nobody should dare encroach upon the sky above

Pyongyang, sacred capital of the DPRK, and they are gravely mistaken if they think they can survive after attacking Pyongyang.

It would mean the miserable end of the puppet group and end of everything in South Korea.

Nevertheless, the puppet group is kicking off the racket of military provocation under the pretext of “interception” and “strike”, asserting that it would not rule out a war and going in league with its master. This is nothing but a ridiculous bid to hamstring the DPRK satellite launch at any cost and comfort its clan in fear of the powerful retaliatory strike by the DPRK.

Lurking behind this is the ulterior intention of the puppet group to justify the confrontation and war moves through the aggravation of the situation, intensify the anti-DPRK smear campaign, calm down the discontented south Koreans, divert elsewhere the public opinion and thus tide over the ruling crisis and create a favorable atmosphere for the “general election”.

The reality more vividly shows that South Koreans can neither lead a happy life even a single day nor escape from the danger of a war as long as such confrontation maniacs as Lee Myung- bak group are allowed to exist in south Korea.

The group of traitors should be well aware of what the “interception” and “strike at Pyongyang” would mean.

The army and people of the DPRK will never pardon the enemies’ attempt of reckless military provocations.

Whoever intrudes into the territorial air and seas even an inch under any pretext and intercepts the DPRK satellite or collects its debris will meet immediate, resolute and merciless punishment by the DPRK.

The DPRK will mete out the unimaginable and the most miserable punishment to its rival if it dares fire into the sky above the DPRK, Pyongyang, in particular.

The cause of war must be rooted out without mercy.

The group of traitors had better bear in mind the grave consequences to be entailed by its reckless provocations.

Meanwhile, on 6 April (Friday), KCNA added another essay to its growing collection of news items and writings on what it terms “peaceful development and use of space.”

Several countries have become more brisk in their moves to develop and use the outer space since the outset of 2012.

On Feb. 6, China opened to public a video footage of the moon that has 7m-resolving capability, taken by the lunar satellite “Change 2″.

The State Administration of Science and Technology for National Defence of China said no country has ever made public a video footage of the moon that has 7m-resolving capability and contains its whole surface.

With a plan to launch 21 rockets with 30 satellites atop this year, China has already succeeded in launching four of them.

China set higher goals such as launching and operating its own space station and blasting off a satellite to prospect Mars till 2020 and has made positive efforts to put them into practice.

Russia announced an 18-year plan for developing space at the beginning of this year and has stepped up the work for development and use of the space.

It envisages a manned flight to the moon and landing on it as well as a long-term research.

It also contemplates operating a research center on Mars and manufacturing a transport spaceship that can be used several times to increase the efficiency of the international space station.

Russia has pressed ahead with the work to increase its satellites on the orbit and decrease the danger of meteorites and comet likely to affect the earth.

Iran succeeded in putting satellite Navid into its planned orbit in February this year in the wake of the successful launch of its first satellite in June of 2011. It is said that the weight of Navid is over treble that of the first one.

Vietnam, Venezuela, India, Nigeria, Argentina, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Turkey, Poland and many other countries have shaped aggressive space policies and development plans to suit their actual conditions and foundations and set about conquering space. Cooperation and assistance are being boosted among them.

Some countries in the world are taking bold approaches towards establishing and reinforcing their own global position systems, independent on the U.S. GPS.

China that planned to complete the global position system “Beidou” till 2020 is set to operate the system late this year.

Russia is also mulling reinforcing its own global position system “Glonas”.

It successfully blasted off space vehicles needed to establish the system late last year, making it possible to send position signals nonstop throughout the globe.

Russia aims at making “Glonas” superior to GPS. It is assertion of Russia that “Glonas” should not be inferior to GPS in all indexes but should be better than the latter.

The European Union invested a huge amount of fund in research and development of satellite flight in an effort to build infrastructure for the Galileo global position system and improve the service for flight.

It is said that the system is likely to go fully operational by 2018 and compete with the GPS and “Glonas”.

The facts go to prove that the global space science and technology have made rapid progress and it has become a trend in the 21st century to develop the outer space, common wealth of mankind, for peaceful purposes.

The international community’s approach towards peaceful development and use of the space will get more brisk and multi-polar.

DPRK Foreign Ministry Issues Statement on Suspension of US Aid

DPRK Foreign Ministry (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) (Photo: Google image)

The DPRK’s Foreign Ministry described the suspension of nutritional assistance by the United States as an “overreaction” to the planned mid-April launch of U’nha-3 with the Kwangmyo’ngso’ng-3 satellite  The Foreign Ministry’s spokesman also said that the US “would not send its experts and also forced other countries not to send one,” a reference to the DPRK’s invitation to “experienced experts” to observe the U’nha-3 launch.  KCNA reports:

A spokesman for the Foreign Ministry of the DPRK gave the following answer to a question raised by KCNA Saturday as regards the U.S. moves to exploit the DPRK’s planned launch of satellite Kwangmyongsong-3 for meeting its sinister political and military purposes:

The U.S. overreaction to the DPRK’s plan to launch scientific and technological satellite for peaceful purposes has gone beyond the limit.

The U.S. has so far insisted that it does not relate humanitarian issue with the political issue. But it responded to the DPRK’s planned satellite launch with the announcement to stop following through on its commitment to food aid. This would be a regrettable act of scrapping the DPRK-U.S. agreement in its entirety as it is a violation of the core articles of the February 29 DPRK-U.S. agreement.

The DPRK extended invitation to satellite experts to visit the launching station to show the sincerity of the DPRK as regards the peaceful satellite launch in a transparent manner. But the U.S. clarified that it would not send its experts and also forced other countries not to send one.

This stands in sharp contrast to its previous insistence that the DPRK should accept inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure the transparency of its nuclear activities.

What the U.S. fears is the objective confirmation of the peaceful nature of the DPRK’s satellite launch.

It has its own political and military objective in describing the DPRK’s satellite launch as a long-range missile launch.

By describing the DPRK’s “long-range missile capabilities” as a “threat to the U.S. mainland”, the U.S. seeks to justify its missile defense system, which is opposed by all the countries in Northeast Asia, and use it as a pretext for pressing forward the MD.

The path chosen by the U.S. would harass peace and stability in Northeast Asia including the Korean Peninsula and spark off fresh cold war.

The DPRK has not yet reached such a point as to discuss the severity and gravity of the consequences to be entailed by the U.S. wrong option.

It just hopes that the U.S. would courageously accept peaceful satellite launch by a sovereign state, though belatedly, and prove in practice its words that it has no hostility toward the DPRK.

Kyodo reports:

North Korea warned the United States on Saturday that suspending food aid to the country under a bilateral food-for-nuclear deal would amount to scrapping the agreement “in its entirety.”

The deal, struck in Beijing and announced Feb. 29, commits North Korea to implement moratoriums on nuclear tests, long-range missile launches and uranium enrichment activities in exchange for 240,000 tons of U.S. food aid.

North Korea’s Foreign Ministry sounded the warning in criticizing the United States for signaling the suspension of planned food aid if Pyongyang goes ahead with the launch of a “satellite” in mid-April that Washington says violates a 2006 U.N. Security Council resolution.

The United States “responded to the DPRK’s planned satellite launch with the announcement to stop following through on its commitment to food aid. This would be a regrettable act of scrapping the DPRK-U.S. agreement in its entirety as it is a violation of the core articles of the February 29 DPRK-U.S. agreement,” a Foreign Ministry spokesman was quoted as saying by the official Korean Central News Agency.

DPRK is the acronym for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

North Korea says it plans to launch an “earth observation satellite” between April 12 and 16, prompting condemnation from Washington and other countries.

Critics say the planned satellite launch by a carrier rocket is a covert test of a long-range ballistic missile in defiance of the U.N. resolution, which bans North Korea from using ballistic missile technology.

The North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman said the United States rejected an invitation from North Korea to send satellite experts to the launch site to ensure transparency in the planned launch.

“The U.S. clarified that it would not send its experts and also forced other countries not to send one,” the spokesman was quoted as saying. “What the U.S. fears is the objective confirmation of the peaceful nature of the DPRK’s satellite launch.”

The spokesman urged Washington to “courageously accept a peaceful satellite launch by a sovereign state, though belatedly, and prove in practice its words that it has no hostility toward the DPRK.”

North Korea says the satellite launch, timed to mark the 100th anniversary of the birth of state founder Kim Il Sung, is needed for the country’s economic development.

The North Korean Foreign Ministry said last week that preparations for the satellite launch have entered a “full-fledged stage of action.”